Party of the People: Inside the Multiracial Populist Coalition Remaking the GOP - Patrick Ruffini
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Read by Stephen Graybill
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An eye-opening, revelatory account of the future of the Republican party as they unite working-class voters in a multi-racial, cross-generational populist coalition.
Donald Trump’s victory in the 2016 presidential election shocked the world. Yet his defeat in 2020 may have been even more surprising: he received 12 million more votes in 2020 than 2016 and his unexpectedly diverse coalition included millions of nonwhite voters, a rarity for the modern Republican party.
In 2020, Trump defied expectations and few journalists, strategists, or politicians could explain why Trump had nearly won reelection. Patrick Ruffini, a Republican pollster and one of the country’s leading experts on political targeting, technology, and demography, has the answers—and the explanation may surprise you. For all his apparent divisiveness, Trump assembled the most diverse Republican presidential coalition in history and rode political trends that will prove significant for decades to come.
The shift is profound: seven in ten American voters belong to groups that have shifted right in the last two presidential elections, while under three in ten whites with a college degree belong to groups that are trending left. Together, this super-majority of right-trending voters forms a colorblind, populist coalition, largely united by its working-class roots, moderate to conservative views on policy, strong religious beliefs, and indifference to or outright rejection of the identity politics practiced by the left. Not all these voters are Republican, and in certain corners of the coalition, only a small minority are. But recent elections are pointing us towards a future where party allegiances have been utterly upended.
The Party of the People demonstrates this data. Ruffini was as wrong as every pollster in 2016 and spent the intervening years figuring out why and developing better methods of analyzing voters in the digital age. Using robust data, he shifts you away from the complacent, widespread narrative that the Republican party is a party of white, rural voters. It is, but more importantly for its longevity, it’s a party of non-college educated voters. And as fewer voters attend college, the Republican party shows no signs of stagnation. With rich data and clear analysis, Party of the People explains the present and future of the Republican party and American elections.
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| Creation Date: | Tue, 07 Nov 2023 06:42:51 +0100 |
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This post has 17 comments with rating of 4/5
November 7th, 2023
“it’s a party of non-college educated voters.”
Thus, the GOP’s war on science and public education.
November 7th, 2023
It’s a party that shows irrational and gullible people can easily be manipulated to vote against their own interests as long as they believe they’re hurting someone.
November 7th, 2023
What Gweilo and Carbonite said.
November 7th, 2023
I think that, up to the last generation or so, the majority of degree holders (or college-educated, at any rate) voted Repub. 55% of college-educated voters voted for Reagan, for inst. That % has now switched, with 45% voting Repub.
The bk’s thesis is interesting. From my gen knowledge, only 2 “minorities” vote Republican (in a majority sense) - Vietnamese-Amers & Cuban-Amers. However, whereas only 10% of African-Amer females voted Trump in ‘16, that had doubled by 2020.
So, trends might indeed be “shifting” as the description keeps saying.
We have a tendency to reflexively think that “other” people are always being manipulated into voting against their interests, but I don’t think this holds water generally. People will vote according to their interests, it’s just that we might not share those interests. Or we might think that others ought to have different interests than the ones which they actually have, etc.
Whatever the trends, I have a genuine fear of Trump winning next yr, esp due to the international climate.
November 7th, 2023
the book kept boasting about Trump’s additional 12 mil votes that he got from 2016 to 2020 but kept quiet that Biden (who is so much more boring than Clinton) received 16–17 million more votes than Hillary.
the truth is, Trump should never have won the 2016 election but people, including me, were too stupid to believe that anyone would vote for that clown so a lot of Dems didn’t bother to vote. He got lucky. Now we have learned our lesson and will never drop our guard down ever again. The next election will be blue, and the GOP will continue to lose votes. 2018 is the closest vote ever for the 2 parties. but that is the last.
November 7th, 2023
Both parties are dysfunctional and corrupt.
November 7th, 2023
“Republican party… unite working-class voters in a multi-racial, cross-generational populist coalition.”
LOL, don’t piss on my shoes and tell me it’s raining!
November 7th, 2023
…yet that is how political parties pragmatically perpetuate themselves. They have been knockin’ around for almost 2 centuries. It’s do or die.
November 7th, 2023
koloko That’s a the KKK party crack pipe induced fantasy.
November 7th, 2023
Not that i’m ever going to listen to this (only here to read the comments) but:-
Is that the Greybill from Graphic audio?
November 7th, 2023
THANK YOU VERY MUCH BROTHER, OR SISTER.
Finally someone who is actually trying to portrait what is taking place in America. If the GOP survives it will definitely have to become a populist party aimed at restoring America back from the forces that are trying to destroy it internally. The same forces that are trying to destroy Western Europe. Restore it back to country that takes care of its own citizens first so that it can be a true ally next.
-THANK YOU VERY MUCH-
November 7th, 2023
For the first part) Caesar, well said.
For the second) concerning your ‘fears’; how many wars were there during Trumps first term?
November 7th, 2023
Gweilo , you definitely are not intellectual.. more of a bottom feeding wannabe progressive..
November 8th, 2023
The concern here in Europe is very much focused on the bellicose expansionism from the east & the people who are suffering as a result of that. We need politicians in power who understand real threats.
November 8th, 2023
The GOP died in 2016! Now, it’s nothing but a bunch of Karen’s, prudes, traitors, anti-constituion, fake Christian, pro-death hypocrites!!!!
November 10th, 2023
@caesar963
The average European has become completely clueless. We’ll happily allow our sanctions to destroy our own economies because “Putin Bad”.
The war in Ukraine should have been avoided, and could have been if western leaders had taken the Minsk talks seriously. Instead, by Merkel’s own admission, they used them merely to stall for time while they helped build up Ukraine’s Nazi battalions (Azov et al).
November 10th, 2023
In Europe, the history of such brutal regimes is not that distant. Putin is aided by his own nazi battalions - for years, in Ukraine, Syria & at home (Russian nazis such as the Rusich Group; Russian Imperial Movement; Russian Imperial Legion; Reserve Squad, etc. etc.).
The war against Ukraine could have been avoided, had Putin not invaded a sovereign neighbour.
The “Ukraine is nazi” prop is an obvious technique (like Putin’s “Sudetenlander” ploy) to convince the clueless by shifting blame onto Ukrainian victims of invasion, mass murders, human rights violations, rape & torture by implying that the Ukrainian people themselves are really to blame. Whereas the truth is that Russian units who took part in the invasion are themselves nazis & linked to neo-nazism, such as the Rusich Group. Russian neo-nazis also played an important role among the Russian proxy forces in Donbas, & were in action against the Syrian people.
The Putin regime cultivated its own homegrown Nazis. Ukrainian state has protected minorities like Crimean Tatars & LGBTQ+ people, & many others who are subject to brutal persecution in Russia.
The neo-nazi Russian Imperial Legion provides paramilitary-style training to white supremacists & neo-Nazis in Europe & works to rally these groups into a common front against their enemies. The movement has two training facilities in St. Petersburg, for inst.
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